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International Journal for Research Trends and Innovation
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ISSN Approved Journal No: 2456-3315 | Impact factor: 8.14 | ESTD Year: 2016
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Impact Factor : 8.14
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Volume Published : 11
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| Paper Title: | Modeling and control of epidemic spread of populations using delay differential equations |
| Authors Name: | Saksham Singh |
| Download E-Certificate: | Download |
| Author Reg. ID: |
IJRTI_205201
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| Published Paper Id: | IJRTI2507060 |
| Published In: | Volume 10 Issue 7, July-2025 |
| DOI: | |
| Abstract: | Infectious disease modeling is essential for designing strategies to mitigate epidemic outbreaks. Traditional compartmental models like SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) often ignore inherent delays such as incubation periods, delays in reporting, or delayed effects of policy interventions, leading to less accurate predictions. This paper develops a delay differential equation (DDE)-based SEIR model, capturing incubation, treatment, and policy delay effects explicitly. Furthermore, the model integrates uncertainty in epidemiological parameters via fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulation, and it optimizes epidemic control policies using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. Real-world COVID-19 data from Kerala, India is used for validation, demonstrating the model's effectiveness in fitting actual data and analyzing intervention scenarios such as early vs. late lockdowns or varying vaccination strategies. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for delays, uncertainty, and optimal control in designing effective public health interventions. |
| Keywords: | Epidemic Modeling, SEIR Model, Delay Differential Equations (DDEs), COVID-19, Optimal Control, Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, Fuzzy Logic, Monte Carlo Simulation, Incubation Delay, Scenario Analysis, Intervention Strategies, Time Delay Systems, Vaccination Dynamics, Quarantine Optimization, Infectious Disease Spread, Dynamic Systems in Epidemiology, Nonlinear Control, Uncertainty Quantification, Public Health Policy, Data-Driven Modeling |
| Cite Article: | "Modeling and control of epidemic spread of populations using delay differential equations", International Journal for Research Trends and Innovation (www.ijrti.org), ISSN:2455-2631, Vol.10, Issue 7, page no.a516-a518, July-2025, Available :http://www.ijrti.org/papers/IJRTI2507060.pdf |
| Downloads: | 000413 |
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2456-3315 | IMPACT FACTOR: 8.14 Calculated By Google Scholar| ESTD YEAR: 2016 An International Scholarly Open Access Journal, Peer-Reviewed, Refereed Journal Impact Factor 8.14 Calculate by Google Scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Multilanguage Journal Indexing in All Major Database & Metadata, Citation Generator |
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Published Paper ID: IJRTI2507060
Registration ID:205201
Published In: Volume 10 Issue 7, July-2025
DOI (Digital Object Identifier):
Page No: a516-a518 Country: Bengaluru, Karnataka, India Research Area: Applied Mathematics Publisher : IJ Publication Published Paper URL : https://www.ijrti.org/viewpaperforall?paper=IJRTI2507060 Published Paper PDF: https://www.ijrti.org/papers/IJRTI2507060 |
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ISSN: 2456-3315
Impact Factor: 8.14 and ISSN APPROVED,
Journal Starting Year (ESTD) : 2016
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