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Paper Title: PRICE FORECASTING & INTEGRATION OF DOMESTIC MARKETS OF SPICES IN INDIA - AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
Authors Name: Dr. Vinayak. S. Hosamani , Dr. C. M. Thyagaraja
Unique Id: IJRTI1810018
Published In: Volume 3 Issue 10, October-2018
Abstract: India is not only the largest producer but also the largest consumer of spices in the world. The major proportion of the spices produced in India is absorbed in the domestic market and only about 10 per cent is exported to over 150 countries.In the world, there is 3.19 % growth rate in estimated demand for Spices. But the country growth in Spices export is reasonable but not remarkable even though Spices are grown in the country since ancient times. There is a gradually rise in the demand for organic products (20-25 %) in the developed countries and this demand is about 2 percent for organic Spices.For the present study, four major spices viz., Black pepper, Chilli, Turmeric and Ginger were selected for in-depth analysis. The ARIMA model was used for forecasting spice prices and to examine the integration between domestic markets of spices co-integration analysis was utilized. The study utilised monthly average domestic prices for the year 2007-08 to 2016-17. The market integration was assessed by employing co-integration technique by using the monthly data of ten years (2007-08 to 2016-17). The results indicated that the selected spice prices forecasted using the ARIMA model showed an increasing trend, with due consideration to seasonality and cycles. In this regard, spice growers may be advised to plan the production process and decide when to sell the produce, so that, they would get a higher price for their produce. Appropriate steps may be initiated to capture the world market on a sustained basis.There was no long-run co-integration between the domestic markets with respect to prices. Since, there is no accountability of production of these crops in different pockets of the country resulting in a wide gap between the production and market centres. Therefore, price transmission motivates for domestic trading through price information. This will be achieved efficiently, if the spice market moves along with the nationwide exchange based commodity derivatives trading system.
Keywords: Export, Import, Trade, Spices, Economic Analysis, Forecasting, Price etc.
Cite Article: "PRICE FORECASTING & INTEGRATION OF DOMESTIC MARKETS OF SPICES IN INDIA - AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS", International Journal of Science & Engineering Development Research (www.ijrti.org), ISSN:2455-2631, Vol.3, Issue 10, page no.94 - 103, October-2018, Available :http://www.ijrti.org/papers/IJRTI1810018.pdf
Downloads: 000648
Publication Details: Published Paper ID: IJRTI1810018
Registration ID:180529
Published In: Volume 3 Issue 10, October-2018
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ISSN Number: 2456 - 3315
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